Illustrative example · fictional business · not real results
Sample: an online store selling a dropshipped laptop stand
ESP works for any small business. This page shows what parts of a project look like, using an online store, followed by the financial model for a service business. The business, the people and the evidence are invented for illustration. The numbers are calculated live by the same engine your own project uses.
Ranked assumptions
| Assumption | Rank | Status | Planned test |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remote workers will pay $59 for this stand from an unknown store. | 25 | Being tested | Pre-order page, $150 ad cap; success = 15 pre-orders |
| Marketing cost per sale can be kept at or below $14. | 20 | Untested | Two-week capped ad test; measure cost per purchase |
| The supplier ships within 7 days with fewer than 3% defects. | 16 | Untested | Order 5 samples to 3 addresses; record time and condition |
| Returns stay at or below 6%. | 12 | Untested | Track first 50 orders |
Evidence register
| Type | Claim |
|---|---|
| Verified external fact | Store platform’s standard online card rate is 2.9% + 30¢ on its basic plan (source: platform pricing page, accessed on a stated date). |
| Result of your own test | 5 sample units arrived in 6–9 days; 0 defects. |
| Estimate | Fulfillment fee of about $7 per order, based on the supplier’s quote. |
| AI-generated hypothesis (unverified) | Buyers who work from home may value adjustable height over price. |
Financial scenarios
Inputs: price $59; landed cost $18; fulfillment $7; marketing $14 per sale; fees 3.4% (illustrative, including 30¢ per order averaged); returns 6%; 40 sales in month 1 growing 12% a month; fixed costs $180 a month; startup $1,500; cash at start $4,000; 12 months.
| Scenario | Revenue | Operating profit | Lowest cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $28,910 | $3,178 | $2,500 |
| Base | $53,537 | $11,909 | $2,500 |
| High | $73,078 | $19,491 | $2,500 |
Kept from each sale after all per-sale costs: $14.57. Break-even: 12.4 sales a month. Most influential input: Price per order (USD).
Results review
Month 2 (illustrative)
Forecast: 44.8 sales, $2,485 revenue. Recorded (invented): 31 sales, $1,661 revenue.
- Revenue was 33% below forecast: about $-765 from the number of sales and $-58 from the average price per sale.
- Fewer sales than planned. Possible adjustments: review how many leads you are reaching and how many convert; test a different channel before spending more.
Plan followed: Partly (ads paused for 10 days). Likely category: The plan was not carried out as intended.
Second example: a mobile bike-repair service
Illustrative example · fictional business · not real results
The same engine and stages apply to a service business. Only the wording changes: jobs instead of orders, parts and travel instead of landed cost and fulfillment.
Inputs: price $85 per job; parts $12 per job; travel $8 per job; marketing $15 per job; card fees 3%; refunds 2%; 25 jobs in month 1 growing 8% a month; fixed costs $250 a month (insurance, booking software, phone); startup $3,000 (tools and van fit-out); cash at start $5,000; 12 months.
| Scenario | Revenue | Operating profit | Lowest cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $21,341 | $7,738 | $2,000 |
| Base | $39,520 | $18,729 | $2,000 |
| High | $53,945 | $27,740 | $2,000 |
Kept from each job after all per-job costs: $45.80. Break-even: 5.5 jobs a month. Most influential input: Price per job or booking (USD).
The owner’s own time is not counted as a cost here; it is covered by owner pay, set to $0 in this example. A real plan should state how much the owner needs to earn.